I have made some widespread changes yet again to TPOEM and I am now in a better position to discuss how it works. Will give an overview and some stats from it in my next post.
In the meantime, here are the predictions for this afternoon’s EPL games:
You will notice that I have now added a most likely score (and probability) for each game – borrowing this idea from Neil Charles’ model predictions.
I have added in a prediction for Newcastle vs Liverpool and, knowing that I won’t be able to post predictions for the rest of the weekend games I have simulated those as well (using probable starting line-ups):
Today TPOEM is quite well aligned with Betfair, which is a bit boring but a good sign for the improvements I have made to it. A couple of outlier predictions with TPOEM respectively more and less confident about Arsenal and Chelsea’s chances than the bookies – something I will have to monitor. This will no doubt encourage a further tweak to the way the model handles each team.