Random League Generator

Here I have attached a downloadable Excel file to share a simple league table generator I put together recently. Click the link below to open it:

Random League Generator

I performed a quick test of downloading the file from this site and my PC tried to open it as an old-school .xls file so you might want to save the file down and open it separately if you’re having trouble. I haven’t tidied, protected or hidden much information in it so consider it yours to use and browse as you wish.

This mini-exercise is intended to provide an illustration of the randomness of results in football in general. Having just finished reading Chris Anderson and David Sally’s The Numbers Game, in which randomness and luck is discussed at great length, I thought I’d take a look at the possible results and league tables we might expect if the league was truly random.

In the first tab ‘Random League Table’ I have created results and tables for 10 seasons for 20 hypothetical teams A-T, all of whom have about a 47% chance of winning a home game, 26% chance of a draw and 27% chance of an away win.

In the second tab I have used real team names and input a strength rating [1-10] to calculate what the league table might look like if the team abilities are distributed in a certain way, and it also serves as a helpful (albeit basic) model to show that sometimes, if we accept the notion of randomness, an unexpected team CAN win the league from time to time or be relegated simply due to the sampling size of a 380 game season. If you want you can change the strength ratings (although you’ll have to pick numbers for each team between 0-10) and then click the orange button to refresh the results (make sure you enable macros in Excel).

Enjoy!

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