Monthly Archives: August 2013

TPOEM EPL 3pm Predictions 17 Aug 2013

This is dodgy territory as it’s the beginning of a new season: new teams, new managers, new players. And as ever the TPOEM model I used last season seems to dislike backing even the firm favourite too much (Liverpool today are a case in point).

I’ve used some proxy players in today’s predictions to try and gloss over the fact I don’t have stats for some players who didn’t play in the EPL last season.

Anyway, here are my forecasts and bets. I also bet on over 2.5 goals in the Sunderland-Fulham match, but considering my model is bottom-up (i.e. it places emphasis on the players in the starting line-up) I had a bit of difficulty knowing what to do with Sunderland’s 5 new players!! Small stakes and no betting on newly promoted teams today, and as per last season I’m looking for value and a % return rather than hundreds or thousands of pounds profit – this isn’t supposed to be anything more than just a hobby.

What I’m saying is, don’t blame me if this is rubbish, but give me credit if it works out. Fair, right?

TPOEM 17 Aug

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Analysts Anonymous – Fantasy Football League

Brief shout out to any friends, readers, bloggers, analysts, players, gamblers or nutcases who play the official fantasy premier league game (which is free).

I set up a league, Analysts Anonymous. Join it and hopefully we’ll have some healthy competition. Code to join this league: 451482-439715. Website is of course http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

Like football itself, the results have a healthy mix of skill and luck and I for one don’t take it too seriously. This isn’t a challenge to beat me (I’m usually a mid table man really!) but I do transfer weekly and I’d be lying if I said I don’t TRY (about 10-20mins a week on average) and after all I do get frustrated if I forget to tinker with my team before the weekly deadlines. Join up!

EPL Predictions 2013/14

Prediction is a mug’s game. But most fans enjoy doing it and after all it is the right time to publish a season-long prediction. On the off-chance I have called a handful of places right, at the end of the season I reserve the right to fool gullible people that I am a predictive genius. With hundreds of analysts and crackpots alike doing this, there’s a good chance that SOMEONE will get it right. And I could be that someone…

Disclaimer, this ain’t wrestling and I’m no Dolphins1925.

EPL Prediction 2013-14To come up with the above, I used the information published in a previous piece and set about adjusting it with my own opinions on which teams have bought and sold well this year, alongside the managerial changes and potential for mean regression.  It would surprise me if Man Utd don’t sneak in a marquee signing of some sort – particularly if Rooney leaves – but in any case I haven’t incorporated that prospect into these predictions.

The working data I started with is here:

Predictions background

And now some reckless not thought through opinions:

You can see that I like Chelsea’s prospects this year. Put a quacking duck in charge of that team and they’ll finish in the top 3 again, let alone THAT inspirational irritable Portuguese man brought to you in association with Samsung.

I’m a bit pessimistic about post-Pulis Stoke. I’m always pessimistic about Stoke but I fear they’ll lose their Stoke-ness this year and drop to the Championship.

I think Everton will weaken without Moyes, and yet Man Utd will also weaken slightly in their adjustment to life without SAF.

Man City will improve a bit, but not quite enough to overhaul Utd and Chelsea. For the record I would have assumed that City under Mancini would have improved on last season’s result in any case.

Arsenal will probably be exactly like Arsenal again this year and take 4th from Liverpool and Spurs. If they manage to prise Suarez off Liverpool I’d knock 4 points off Liverpool and add 7 to Arsenal’s total. Maths!

Liverpool will continue their improvement since January last year, beating Spurs to 5th whilst Spurs won’t be quite as fortunate with late winners from Bale this season but otherwise have a stronger-looking team to make up for it.

Fulham will push Everton for 7th, closely followed by Newcastle, Swansea and Southampton in no particular order.

Norwich, West Ham and West Brom will be safe but stuttering. Cardiff have strengthened just about enough to entertain the thought of survival and perhaps finish ahead of Stoke or Sunderland or Aston Villa. But Hull and Palace are going down!