This is dodgy territory as it’s the beginning of a new season: new teams, new managers, new players. And as ever the TPOEM model I used last season seems to dislike backing even the firm favourite too much (Liverpool today are a case in point).
I’ve used some proxy players in today’s predictions to try and gloss over the fact I don’t have stats for some players who didn’t play in the EPL last season.
Anyway, here are my forecasts and bets. I also bet on over 2.5 goals in the Sunderland-Fulham match, but considering my model is bottom-up (i.e. it places emphasis on the players in the starting line-up) I had a bit of difficulty knowing what to do with Sunderland’s 5 new players!! Small stakes and no betting on newly promoted teams today, and as per last season I’m looking for value and a % return rather than hundreds or thousands of pounds profit – this isn’t supposed to be anything more than just a hobby.
What I’m saying is, don’t blame me if this is rubbish, but give me credit if it works out. Fair, right?